Entries from March 2009 ↓

BOJ policy board member Kamezaki says Japan’s economy
likely to recover gradually late this fiscal year, but economy could worsen if overseas economic recovery slows, uncertainty high over economic outlook, must take policy steps proactively based on changes in economic conditions; suggests BOJ remains on guard against downside risks, will take more measures if necessary, but extent will be less drastic than before. Central bank at May meeting upgrades economic assessment for 1st time in nearly 3 years, while keeping policy target at ultra-low 0.1%. JGB players watched to see if Kamezaki would indicate possibility of BOJ boosting JGB purchases, but he just says uncertain if large amount of JGB issuance by government may push yields higher. Kamezaki will meet press for about 30 minutes from 0500 GMT.

RBS raises forecast for Indonesia’s 2009 current account
to a $3.1 billion surplus from previous forecast for a $3.4 billion deficit,
after current account swung to $1.8 billion surplus in 1Q after 9 months in
deficit; “the large negative terms of trade shock from sharply lower commodity
prices which could have easily sustained the current account deficit now appear overestimated, and are set to correct. If the Chinese economy registers faster growth than originally expected, commodity prices will provide a further boost to Indonesia’s trade balance.” Notes April exports down 23% vs 28% fall in March; meanwhile, there were net outflows in private sector portfolio investment in 1Q, but this more than offset by government’s $3 billion global bond, $650 million global sukuk, while FDI (chiefly to oil & gas, telecoms) at $2.7 billion highest since June 2005.

Recent economic data are fitting into either the good or
great category, says Societe Generale’s Patrick Bennett; “there are no bad
numbers. Risk appetite is once again in the ascendant as investors are cheered by data and the translation to equity market gains – anyone for a bubble?” Are a number of key data prints to come this week, including U.S. payrolls Friday; USD remains under broad pressure and JPY is underperforming, while AUD has been top G10 performer in last 24 hours, putting on some more ground following solid 1Q GDP. “A fair question to ask might be what were the RBA thinking yesterday?
There have been some suggestions that the recent strength in the Australian
dollar may have played a role in their cautionary tone – if so they must be
none too pleased today.” USD/Asians finding some support though on intervention by central banks in region to provide local currency liquidity.