RBS raises forecast for Indonesia’s 2009 current account

RBS raises forecast for Indonesia’s 2009 current account
to a $3.1 billion surplus from previous forecast for a $3.4 billion deficit,
after current account swung to $1.8 billion surplus in 1Q after 9 months in
deficit; “the large negative terms of trade shock from sharply lower commodity
prices which could have easily sustained the current account deficit now appear overestimated, and are set to correct. If the Chinese economy registers faster growth than originally expected, commodity prices will provide a further boost to Indonesia’s trade balance.” Notes April exports down 23% vs 28% fall in March; meanwhile, there were net outflows in private sector portfolio investment in 1Q, but this more than offset by government’s $3 billion global bond, $650 million global sukuk, while FDI (chiefly to oil & gas, telecoms) at $2.7 billion highest since June 2005.